An awful lot of people (including reasonable people) have questioned whether the RNC's bimbo ad against Harold Ford in Tennessee was actually racist. Fine. Then take a look at this anti-Ford mailer being distributed in Tennessee by Common Sense Ohio, the same folks doing pushpolls for the GOP in numerous states. The headline reads: "Bob Corker and Harold Ford are separated by more than their school colors . . ."
Convinced?
--David Kurtz
Down to the wire for the Senate:
Two days before a bitterly fought midterm election, Democrats have moved into position to recapture the House and have laid siege to the Senate, setting the stage for a dramatic recasting of the power structure in Washington for President Bush's final two years in office, according to a Washington Post analysis of competitive races across the country.In the battle for the House, Democrats appear almost certain to pick up more than the 15 seats needed to regain the majority. Republicans virtually concede 10 seats, and a split of the 30 tossup races would add an additional 15 to the Democratic column.
The Senate poses a tougher challenge for Democrats, who need to gain six seats to take control of that chamber. A three-seat gain is almost assured, but they would have to find the other three seats from four states considered tossup races -- Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri and Montana.
No one ever thought the Senate would be a gimme for the Democrats, but so close.
--David Kurtz
A couple of comments on reader comments.
First, thanks to all of the readers who have sent in tips/reports on the campaign goings-on in their parts of the country. Some of what you report will be obviously newsworthy and may generate a post here at TPM or at our other sites. Other reports, standing alone, may not be worth a post, but when combined with other reader reports may reveal a particular tactic or highlight a new strategy in a particular district. My point is even if we don't post about your report or tip doesn't mean we aren't using it to inform our understanding of the electoral battlefield. In military jargon, you might say it improves our situational awareness. So keep them coming. We read everything you send.
Second, since I started my guest-hosting gig here at TPM a few months ago, I haven't gotten a chance to thank you for all your comments, tips, corrections, and general feedback. The TPM audience is an amazing thing to behold. As corny as that may sound, it's true. Writing for this audience is more intellectually challenging and rewarding than just about anything else I have ever undertaken. You are astoundingly well-informed, thoughtful, passionate, and appropriately skeptical, which has renewed my faith in my fellow citizens. The wonderful dynamic that Josh has created and nurtured here would not work without your contributions. So my sincere thanks for all your feedback. It gives us at least a shot at keeping the ball rolling here when Josh is away.
OK, back to the elections . . .
--David Kurtz
New Senate polls due out in the morning from Mason-Dixon for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC. Word is things are very, very tight--at best.
Mason-Dixon's Montana poll is already out, showing Sen. Conrad Burns and Jon Tester tied at 47% apiece. That's down from a 7-point lead for Tester in September and a 3-point lead in October.
Update: In VA, Webb at 46%, Allen at 45%.
--David Kurtz
Some things you just can't make up.
In a year in which Republicans are blasting immigrants and trying to exploit xenophobia for political gain, Rep. Mark Souder (R-IN) is denouncing the phone bank calls made in support of his campaign by the NRCC because the live callers have such heavy Indian or Hispanic accents.
Souder complained that the only thing he could understand in one of the messages, which was left on his daughter's answering machine, was "Hayhurst," the name of his Democratic opponent.
The NRCC calls were supposed to attack Hayhurst as "bad on immigration" or as a proponent of higher taxes. Here's the immigration call script:
“The United States now is home to 11 million illegal immigrants, and the number grows every year. But instead of protecting our borders, congressional candidate Tom Hayhurst supports citizenship opportunities for illegal aliens.”
According to the Fort Wayne Journal-Gazette, Souder said "he was especially exasperated that a phone message about immigration was delivered by people with heavy accents."
Now, here's the kicker. Typically, the NRCC would use automated robocalls to deliver this kind of message. But because robocalls are illegal in Indiana and because the Indiana Attorney General has already successfully sued one GOP 527 group, the Economic Freedom Fund, to stop such calls, the NRCC is being forced to use live callers, a task which it has apparently outsourced.
Just too rich.
--David Kurtz
Who is to blame for Ted Haggard giving into the temptation for adulterous gay sex and meth? His wife, apparently.
Guys, do NOT try this at home: Come on, baby, give it up, or I'm going for the gay sex and crystal meth.
--David Kurtz
UVa law student Mike Stark had another run-in with the George Allen campaign Saturday and was led away in handcuffs by a local sheriff's deputy. The AP report makes it sound like Stark was set up.
--David Kurtz
Ted Haggard has been dismissed from his church for "sexually immoral conduct," according to a statement released by the church oversight board:
We, the Overseer Board of New Life Church, have concluded our deliberations concerning the moral failings of Pastor Ted Haggard. Our investigation and Pastor Haggard's public statements have proven without a doubt that he has committed sexually immoral conduct.The language of our church bylaws state that as Overseers we must decide in cases where the Senior Pastor has "demonstrated immoral conduct" whether we must "remove the pastor from his position or to discipline him in any way they deem necessary."
In consultation with leading evangelicals and experts familiar with the type of behavior Pastor Haggard has demonstrated, we have decided that the most positive and productive direction for our church is his dismissal and removal.
More from the Denver Post.
--David Kurtz
I'm a little late to the party, but YouTube is so cool.
Here are a couple of union guys having fun with a George Bush cut-out and the staff of Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA).
--David Kurtz
Here's a bit more on Ted Haggard, from a UK documentary by evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins.
Thanks to TPM Reader BS for the tip.
--David Kurtz
The difference between Republican and Democratic poll watchers in Montana:
Republicans are there to watch the voters and report back to headquarters with any possible irregularities, said state Republican Party Executive Director Chuck Denowh.Democrats, according to state party chief Jim Farrell, are there to watch the Republicans.
--David Kurtz
I'm afraid Richard Perle's Vanity Fair concession that had he known then what he knows now he would never have supported the Iraq War is going to grab the headlines.
But Perle hardly sounds chastened by the disaster, pointing fingers this way and that:
Huge mistakes were made, and I want to be very clear on this: They were not made by neoconservatives, who had almost no voice in what happened, and certainly almost no voice in what happened after the downfall of the regime in Baghdad," he said."I'm getting damn tired of being described as an architect of the war. I was in favor of bringing down Saddam. Nobody said, 'Go design the campaign to do that.' I had no responsibility for that."
Instead he blames the disaster on "disloyalty" to President Bush from within the Administration. The LA Times suggests this is a swipe at Rumsfeld, but to me it sounds like another knife in Colin Powell's back.
Late Update: Kevin Drum has more on neocon revisionism.
--David Kurtz
TPM Reader EB:
I am from Missouri and I envy your reader from Vermont. I received 30 robocalls yesterday, and have logged 12 today, and it is barely noon. The stem cell amendment has generated the most calls with the Senate campaign between Jim Talent . . . and Claire McCaskill running a close second.
Several Vermont readers have written in to say that TPM Reader JS's experience in Vermont is not necessarily representative and that Vermonters are getting robocalls and other negative campaigning, too. Fair enough.
--David Kurtz
"Put a smile on your face and don't be such a horse's ass."
--Gov. Jeb Bush, responding Friday to a reporter questioning Florida GOP gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist about Crist's sexual orientation
--David Kurtz
Is Rep. Curt Weldon (R-PA) pulling down some of his campaign TV ads so he can save campaign funds for his legal defense?
Two days after launching a new advertisement, U.S. Rep. Curt Weldon has canceled some of his TV time, fueling speculation Friday he was throwing in the towel and saving money for a legal defense fund. The campaign denied the rumors, saying it was merely redirecting cash to "Tele-Town Halls" to reach out to moderate Republicans and independents in the final days of the campaign."We’re not pulling anything. We’re scaling a few things back," said Weldon spokesman Michael Puppio.
With the National Republican Congressional Committee spending $653,700 this week for ads opposing Democrat Joseph Sestak, Puppio said the campaign’s money would be better spent funding telephone forums that enable Weldon to answer live questions from voters.
If Weldon is in fact hoarding campaign funds for later use in his own legal defense while relying on NRCC funds to keep him on TV, I'm thinking the NRCC is going to be none too happy about it.
Late update: The Philadelphia Inquirer has a similar report, but with a slightly different take, noting that the NRCC has already shifted its money from the Weldon race to other Pennsylvania congressional races, which would seem to undermine the Weldon campaign's claim that pulling down some of its TV ads is simply a tactical shift. (Thanks to TPM Reader DL).
--David Kurtz
TPM Reader JD checks in from Baghdad:
"But first this Breaking News, Saddam Hussein was sentenced to death today in Iraq."That is how the Sunday talk shows will begin tomorrow, two days before the U.S. elections. All indications are that capital punishment is a go, a curfew is tentatively scheduled for tonight or tomorrow morning in much of Iraq to protect against the likely backlash. Saddam will be able to appeal, probably over about two months. The appeal to voters, though, will be how important it is to remain strong, stay the course, during the next two days -- most particularly Tuesday: this time, we've really turned the corner. . . .
Saddam will likely be sentenced during the wee hours EST, in plenty of time to round up "experts" for the panel shows: "Despite the violent reaction we are seeing, this really is one of the key indicators of progress and ongoing commitment we have been looking for..." You know the drill.
Hard to argue with that prediction.
--David Kurtz
A follow-up on what we shall call "The Snatch," short-hand for Rep. Tim Murphy (R-PA) shown on camera grabbing incriminating documents from a local TV investigative reporter and refusing to return them. Turns out the district staffer who blew the whistle on the use of district staff for campaign work was sent home when she reported for work yesterday. KDKA reports on the latest developments here.
--David Kurtz
TPM Reader RW:
I think that it is time that we ask that all Evangelicals supporting anti-gay marriage provisions to pledge that they themselves are not having gay sex or doing meth.
We'll call it the Hypocritic Oath.
--David Kurtz
More on Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA) flipping out about a flip off. Election Central has the backstory.
--David Kurtz
Katherine Harris has said she is a "wannabe" Jew and is often mistaken as a Jew by Jews, but this ain't going to be winning her many friends, Jewish or otherwise:
U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris, who has made past comments that raised questions about her religious sensitivity, prayed in a telephone prayer service recently that God would "bring the hearts and minds of our Jewish brothers and sisters into alignment."A Harris spokeswoman said Friday that the Longboat Key Republican, who has advocated electing Christian officeholders, was talking about converting Jews to vote Republican, not to Christianity.
. . .
In a prayer at the end of the conference call, she . . . added, "And Father God, right now on the day after the Jewish new year, Father, after the day after atonement, as they enter into their new year, Father God, I just pray that you would bring the hearts and minds of our Jewish brothers and sisters into alignment." She prayed for the safety of Israel, "your sacred nation, Father."
Sometimes I wonder if it wouldn't be better for Democrats in the long run simply to concede the Florida Senate seat to Harris. It would certainly be better for journalists. What will we do without Harris in public life?
--David Kurtz
Remember the "Brokebank Democrats" ad being run against Democrat Jon Tester in Montana by swiftboater Bob Perry's Free Enterprise Fund?
We reported on it yesterday. Go take a look. We have it up at Election Central.
Well, TPM Reader PS took a look and noticed that the phone number that appears in the ad, with a voiceover exhorting viewers to call Jon Tester, looks like a home phone number. PS called and got an answering machine that sounded like the Tester family answering machine:
What I heard was, "Hi, you've reached the Testers, we can't answer the phone right now, so please leave a message."
Now, I have spared the Testers another call to verify this, but the number in the ad does match up with the number listed for the Testers in online phone directories. The Grand Old Party, plumbing the depths of campaign skullduggery.
I honestly didn't know you could even do this without running afoul of FCC harrrassment laws. Any telecommunications lawyers out there with a take on this?
--David Kurtz
TPM Reader JS wants in on the fun:
I feel so left out. I lived most of my life in a Boston suburb with no electoral hanky-panky tolerated, and now I'm in rural Vermont, scrupulously honest and fair-minded to the point of obsession, one polling place for my town in the volunteer fire department house, with old-fashioned hand-counted paper ballots, etc. Rich Tarrant, the typical sort of upstanding, moderate Republican millionaire businessman (basically Mitt Romney lite) who might have had a chance against Trotskyite Bernie Sanders in the Senate race, has so offended Vermonters with his comparatively mild negative advertising against Sanders that he sank in the polls almost as soon as he became known. Nobody does push-polling, nobody even does robo-calls.I feel a great sense of pride in my newly adopted home state for that, but still, it's so boring! How I yearn to be able to write panicky conspiracy theory diaries on Kos, or report some juicy bit of Republican skullduggery to TPM. But alas, it's not to be.
And so dear readers in battleground districts and states, it is up to you. JS must live vicariously through the experiences of other TPM readers. Keep those tips coming.
--David Kurtz
Earlier in the week we reported on the robocall push-polls being conducted by Common Sense Ohio in five states. I understand the outfit is making calls in Missouri now, too. If you have received any of these calls, in Missouri or elsewhere, let us know what they're saying.
--David Kurtz
An editorial scheduled to appear Monday in the Army Times, the Air Force Times, the Navy Times and the Marine Corps Times calls for the resignation of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.
An excerpt:
Rumsfeld has lost credibility with the uniformed leadership, with the troops, with Congress and with the public at large. His strategy has failed, and his ability to lead is compromised. And although the blame for our failures in Iraq rests with the secretary, it will be the troops who bear its brunt.This is not about the midterm elections. Regardless of which party wins Nov. 7, the time has come, Mr. President, to face the hard bruising truth:
Donald Rumsfeld must go.
I wouldn't let the blame for Iraq stop at the Secretary of Defense, of course. The Vice President and President bear the ultimate responsibility. Nor do I think it's accurate to say this is not about the midterm elections. It has everything to do with the midterms, as does, I am sure, the timing of the publication of these editorials. My only other complaint would be, what took so long?
--David Kurtz
A brief personal note: Elections are a pretty big deal here at TPM, especially ones where the result may not actually suck. And it would take a lot to pull me away. So a few of you have asked why I disappeared at the end of the week. A simple, if unpleasant, explanation: I came down with a nasty stomach virus that put me out of commission the last two days. But now I'm back and ready for the final sprint.
Anyway, a few points for the final stretch. First, please keep the tips coming. The amount of leads and tips we've gotten from readers in the last ten days has been phenomenal. Please keep them coming in. I simply can't tell you how essential they are to what we do.
In the final countdown to election day, TPM Election Central is going to be our main spot for election updates and breaking news of all sorts. TPMCafe will also be hosting our elections scoreboard where we'll be updating the returns in real time as they come in Tuesday night and, I suspect, into Wednesday.
TPMmuckraker.com will be doing its usually cataloging of political muck and skullduggery of all sorts. But from now through the election muckrakers will be given special focus to voter suppression efforts, dirty tricks and all election related muck. You're in a far better position to see this stuff than any network news producer or prestige journalist in Washington or New York. Because you'll see it first in your mailbox, or hear it on your phone or you'll see it in the roadblocks thrown up on election day. These stunts come in all shapes and sizes. So keep your eyes and ears open.
More shortly.
--Josh Marshall
The Glens Falls Post-Star, which endorsed Rep. John Sweeney (R-NY) only days ago, has withdrawn its endorsement over the domestic violence incident and Sweeney's changing stories about what happened.
--Josh Marshall
Oh, you knew this was coming.
John Sweeney to investigate the leak of the "wife knocking" police report.
It's not clear if he's still saying that the leaked report was false. But it is clear he's not going to be releasing the "real" report any time soon.
--Paul Kiel
New ad running in Montana from a conservative attack group: "Brokebank Democrats."
No, we're not kidding.
Update: And that ad comes to you courtesy of Bob Perry's dollars -- the primary funder of the Swift Boat Vets in 2004. He's invested $9 million in attack ads so far this year.
--Paul Kiel
Wow, in one of the all-time great "denials" Ted Haggard admits that a hotel referred him to his male escort accuser for a massage, but denies having sex with the man; admits to having purchased crystal meth from the accuser, but denies actually using the drug.
Makes that Clinton fella look like a rank amateur for his "I didn't inhale" defense.
Late Update: Video of the Haggard denial here.
--David Kurtz
Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) finally, really resigning for real. In just an hour or so. Really.
--Paul Kiel
Oh, now it's personal. GOP attacks Dem challenger in Wyoming for being from New York.
Update: TPM Reader ZL spells it out:
The first I thought when I watched the anti-Trauner ad, where he's attacked for being from New York, was: "Is he Jewish?"Yep. He is.
Surprise, surprise. After the anti-Ford ad in Tennessee, we get a classic bit of anti-Semitism ("New Yorker," nudge nudge wink wink) in Wyoming.
I'm not sure if you were implying this in your comment, but you might want to make it explicit for those who aren't so familiar with the traditional New York/Jewish anti-Semitic code-word.
And TPM Reader MS:
When a campaign starts criticizing an opponent's "New York values" anywhere west or south of the Delaware River, it's a dogwhistle call to point out to voters that he's Jewish.
--Paul Kiel
If you flip off the President, Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA) will make sure you lose your job... and then lie about it.
--Paul Kiel
From the bizarre to the surreal. Last night Ted Haggard's successor sent an email to his congregation admitting that some of the gay former prostitute's allegations against Haggard are true. This morning the accuser failed a lie detector test administered on talk radio.
--David Kurtz
Ahhh, John Sweeney. The police need his say-so to release the official report of the domestic abuse call that's derailed his campaign. And he says he wants to give it. But somehow, he just can't bring himself to do it.
--Paul Kiel
One of the great entertainments to watch just before an upheaval election is list of candidates who want to make sure they lose their dignity ahead of losing their seat. Along those lines is Rep. Deborah Pryce, number four in the House leadership who's just announced that "What's happening in Iraq is not a direct reflection on me." And you know it's good because those were actually her prepared remarks her campaign sent CNN after the interview. During the live session, in the midst of answering, she wigged out and declared the interview over.
--Josh Marshall
Rep. Tim Murphy (R-PA) provides a new model of scandal management -- when confronted with incriminating evidence by a reporter, snatch it away.
--Paul Kiel
Is Vito in trouble?
New York City's only Republican congressman, Vito Fossella, has held five debates against his underfunded opponent, Democrat Steve Harrison, and is now running Dick Morris-inspired radio ads that claim Harrison cares more about protecting terrorists than New Yorkers:
The scare ad features a phone call between two terrorists that suddenly goes dead. An announcer says Democrat Steve Harrison wants to stop wiretapping terrorists who are planning new attacks."Steve Harrison: putting terrorist rights above the safety of you and your family," the spot says.
CQ Politics rates this race as "Republican Favored," a shift toward the Democrat from "Safe Republican."
--David Kurtz
One government official has done more than perhaps any other in policing waste, fraud and abuse among contractors in Iraq. He just got his reward: a pink slip. That and other news of the day in today's Daily Muck.
--Justin Rood
Not looking so good for Ted Haggard:
Haggard, 50, initially denied the allegations, telling 9News Wednesday night that "I've never had a gay relationship with anybody, and I'm steady with my wife. I'm faithful to my wife."But KKTV in Colorado Springs reported that New Life Associate Senior Pastor Ross Parsley told a meeting of church elders Thursday night that Haggard had met with the church's overseers earlier in the day and "had admitted to some indiscretions."
Parsley told the elders that Haggard had said some of the allegations were true, but not all of them.
I'm guessing that to most readers Ted Haggard is barely known. But this is the conservative equivalent of Jesse Jackson getting caught wearing a hood at a Klan cross burning. The political implications are enormous.
While evangelical Christians have been a force in national politics for the last two decades, most evangelicals still harbor a deep disaffection with politics. It remains a predominately secular endeavour, in their view, and for many evangelicals there is a strongly held sense that politics, like other aspects of the pop culture, corrupts those who come in contact with it. That has always been the headwind facing Republicans seeking to rally evangelicals to political purpose.
Foley and Haggard are turning the headwind into a full-blown gale for the GOP.
--David Kurtz
These are the kinds of local reports we're looking for here in the final stretch (thanks to TPM Reader BR):
Early voters in the heart of the heated race to succeed former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay were greeted Wednesday with red and white signs that read: "Want more illegals? Vote Democrat" and "Encourage Terrorists. Vote Democrat."
The GOP paid for the signs.
--David Kurtz
Last March, the federal government set up a Web site to make public a vast archive of Iraqi documents captured during the war. The Bush administration did so under pressure from Congressional Republicans who said they hoped to “leverage the Internet” to find new evidence of the prewar dangers posed by Saddam Hussein.But in recent weeks, the site has posted some documents that weapons experts say are a danger themselves: detailed accounts of Iraq’s secret nuclear research before the 1991 Persian Gulf war. The documents, the experts say, constitute a basic guide to building an atom bomb.
Last night, the government shut down the Web site after The New York Times asked about complaints from weapons experts and arms-control officials. A spokesman for the director of national intelligence said access to the site had been suspended “pending a review to ensure its content is appropriate for public viewing.”
Had enough?
--David Kurtz
Here's where we are heading into the final weekend:
Democrats expressed growing optimism that their long season out of power might soon end. Sen. Chuck Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senate campaign organization, claimed strong early voting in a long-shot race in Arizona and said it was "harbinger of a wave" that would benefit his party.Five days before the election, Democratic strategists said none of their incumbents in either house of Congress was trailing — and Republicans did not disagree.
Republicans disputed Schumer's claim about Arizona, but even so, the GOP side of the political ledger was far less positive. Strategists already have written off the re-election prospects of incumbent Sens. Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania and Mike DeWine in Ohio, as well as six or more seats in GOP hands in the House. Dozens more Republican lawmakers — powerbrokers and backbenchers, conservatives and moderates — struggled to survive in a campaign shadowed by the war in Iraq and scandal at home.
A few thoughts before the whirlwind sweeps away all perspective.
Not to rain on the parade but all the talk of dramatic Democratic gains in the House has a tendency to downplay a serious underlying structural problem. Even under the rosiest scenarios, the Democrats only pick up somewhere around 50 seats. Realistically, it looks like 25-35 pickups. The House was designed to be the national political institution most politically responsive to the people. I would venture to say that given the massive train wreck that the GOP has created in public affairs, the founders would be stunned to see so few seats change hands. If these are the kinds of political conditions it takes to move 50 House seats, then we're in trouble.
GOP losses of whatever size are going to trigger a wave of internal backbiting and fingerpointing. No surprise there. But I suspect there is going to emerge a common theme among Republicans, a declaration that the political environment was so toxic that no incumbent party could expect to emerge unscathed. The more brash will declare that the GOP did quite well given the circumstances. What will be missing is any sense that the Republicans made their own bed and were forced to lay in it. The 2006 "political environment" will be treated like a weather phenomenon, something beyond our control, a freak of nature, instead of what it is: a reaction to the GOP's man-made calamity.
I hope that when the political history of the last half century is written it will show, as it should, that the Republicans engaged in a brand of divisive electoral politics that pitted Americans against each other: white against black, men against women, rich against poor, native born against immigrant, straight against gay. Republicans deserve to be tarred by history for exploiting our weaknesses, our prejudices, and our lesser selves for their own political gain. But those are still our weaknesses and our prejudices. We own them. And it is our lesser selves that have succumbed to the Republican political pitch and been willing to be exploited. Removing the Republicans from power will only be a temporary fix unless we fundamentally fix ourselves so that no one, no party, no movement can exploit those same weaknesses again.
--David Kurtz
I have to say these are the first national Democratic Party ads I've seen that strike me as sufficiently tough and hard-hitting. Not perfect. The Kyl ad is paced too slowly (is anyone under the age of 40 producing Democratic campaign ads these days?), and the Allen ad, while powerful, ends with a weak visual image. But overall this is much better than most of the earlier stuff.
--David Kurtz
So Ted Haggard has stepped aside temporarily as pastor of his mega-church and resigned as president of the National Association of Evangelicals. The Rocky Mountain News reports, "Some community leaders in the Colorado Springs had scheduled a rally this afternoon in support of Haggard but canceled the gathering at the request of the church."
So here we have an exploding (gay) sex scandal reminiscent of Jimmy Swaggart and Jim Bakker, yet no mention of it on Drudge. If an angel falls in the conservative forest and Drudge doesn't link to it, did it really happen?
Late update: Drudge relents. Provides 2 links on Haggard story. Nearly 24 hours after the story first broke.
--David Kurtz
More on Rev. Ted Haggard, super-evangelist and, allegedly, monumental hypocrite.
He says he's stepping down -- temporarily.
--Paul Kiel
Rep. Peter Roskam (R-IL) goes for the Social Security bamboozlement trifecta... and he does it!
--Paul Kiel
Breaking from the AP -- details of the settlement between Rep. Don Sherwood (R-PA) and his mistress, who alleged years of abuse. $500,000 and stay quiet about it.
--Paul Kiel
Paul Kiel has more on the NRCC's efforts to help Mark Foley with damage control after ABC approached Foley about the overfriendly emails to pages.
--David Kurtz
One of the first female soldiers to die in Iraq committed suicide, after objecting to interrogation techniques used on prisoners (via War and Piece).
--David Kurtz
The National Republican Congressional Committee was having private discussions over how to do "damage control" on Foleygate earlier than suspected.
--David Kurtz
A Colorado TV station reported last night that Rev. Ted Haggard, a major figure in the evangelical movement who has not hesitated to cross over into the arena of secular politics, allegedly had an ongoing sexual relationship with a gay former male escort.
Haggard denies it.
Haggard, the founder and senior leader of the New Life Church in Colorado Springs, is one of the country's most prominent evangelical religious leaders, in part because of the very active role he has taken in national politics. Haggard is not as recognizable as James Dobson, who is also based in Colorado Springs, but Haggard is arguably just as influential within evangelical and conservative political circles, talking to President Bush or his advisers every Monday.
Last year Harper's ran a lengthy article featuring Haggard, and the magazine has helpfully posted the piece on its website today.
First Mark Foley, now Ted Haggard? It's hard to conjure up anything else that could further depress the turnout of conservative evangelicals.
Late Update: No mention of the Haggard story on Drudge. I thought sex and politics was Drudge's lifeblood. Maybe he's pretending not to notice this one. After all, you wouldn't want to demoralize the true believers at this late stage of the campaign.
Later update: I'm not the only one to notice a studied silence from our conservative brethren.
--David Kurtz
Election Central screens the latest political ads. Ned Lamont as Jimmy Stewart's Mr. Smith Goes to Washington is a little spooky.
--David Kurtz
Your daily Jim Gibbons / cocktail waitress cover-up update. In today's edition, it's the tale of the tapes.
--Paul Kiel
NRCC drops another $6 million nationwide, and some of it went to Rep. Curt Weldon (R-PA), despite reports that the national GOP had given up on that race.
--David Kurtz
Josh posted a couple of weeks ago about the modus operandi of the AP's John Solomon: "His rep is as an easy mark for oppo researchers peddling their wares -- and from both sides."
So I was almost amused when I saw Solomon's hit piece today on John Kerry. In a story that purports to follow up on Kerry's botched Iraq joke (the headline is "Kerry's '72 Army comments mirror latest"), Solomon reports:
During a Vietnam-era run for Congress three decades ago, John Kerry said he opposed a volunteer Army because it would be dominated by the underprivileged, be less accountable and be more prone to "the perpetuation of war crimes."
Phrased that way, it appears that Kerry was linking being underprivileged to the commission of war crimes. But once you read the rest of Solomon's piece it becomes pretty clear that Kerry thought that a professional army would be more likely to commit war crimes (which may be arguable but is not implausible) and also thought that an all-volunteer force would be comprised disproportionately (and unfairly) of the underprivileged. Solomon commits the causal fallacy of concluding that Kerry therefore said that the underprivileged are more likely to commit war crimes.
Now back to the Solomon MO. His sources for the story were "a former law enforcement official who monitored 1970s anti-war activities" and "someone who gathered" the document in which the comments appear"from archives during Kerry's unsuccessful 2004 presidential campaign." The first source gave Solomon the tip. The second source, apparently an opposition researcher, provided the document.
Like I said, almost funny. Then I considered what a treasure trove the current national security apparatus must be yielding even as we speak for some oppo researcher to exploit against a yet unknown Iraq War veteran 34 years from now.
--David Kurtz
See Mark Foley's cameo in a straight-to-video piece of, err, cinema verite.
--David Kurtz
Republicans run ads with images of flag-draped coffins... attacking Democrats for running ads with flag-draped coffins.
--Paul Kiel
To Dick Cheney, information is a very dangerous thing. But let's see if that argument holds up in court.
--Paul Kiel
Election watcher Larry Sabato's predictions are in...
23-30 House and 5-6 Senate pickups for Dems -- but more impressively, he thinks it's possible that the GOP might not win a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship from Dems this election. Details here.
--Paul Kiel
Cluck, cluck: If Republican lawmakers hadn't broken quite so many laws, maybe they'd have a better shot at holding on to power. That and other news of the day in today's Daily Muck.
--Justin Rood
Our pal Ruy Teixeira does an in-depth crunching of all the numbers and polls. Lotta good stuff. Check it out.
--Josh Marshall
Charlottesville PD investigating the Allen campain's assault on blogger Mike Stark. And Sen. Allen (R-VA) is among those the cops want to question.
--Josh Marshall
This has to be one of the most pathetic things I've seen this election campaign, though it's still got serious competition from this Colorado GOP House candidate who sent out a flyer begging forgiveness for demanding that Social Security be abolished when he was a (24 year old) 'know-it-all-kid'.
Rep. Curt Weldon (R-PA), one of the more bizarre and execrable specimens housed in the House GOP menagerie, is, you know, the subject of a very serious federal corruption and bribery investigation. And now he's gone on the air with ad, the message of which appears to be: vote Weldon, because it's really not clear yet that he's a crook.
Here's how the Philadelphia Inquirer describes the ad ...
A Weldon spot addresses the federal probe without mentioning it directly, using the voices of ordinary voters. The commercial begins with a question - "Would you give a friend the benefit of a doubt?" - and concludes with the answer: "He's been there for us. Now it's our turn to be there for him."
This must be a GOP version of the civic compact I'm not familiar with. Congressman represents constituents. In turn constituents stand by him when he's investigated for taking bribes. I think Locke may say something like that. But it's been a while since I studied that stuff in grad school. So I can't remember.
Vote Weldon in his time of need! He's been there for us. So shouldn't we stick by him while he's investigated for bribery and corruption?
That's really got to get the volunteers juiced up to knock on doors.
Has anyone actually seen this ad? I'm dying to see it.
--Josh Marshall
Rep. John Sweeney (R-NY) fights back against news reports he roughed up his wife who then called the police for help. He kinda sorta denies the events happened, 
but not really. You can see the details in this report. But the essence of it is that while he says that "the report is false ... there was no domestic violence", he doesn't really say the events as reported didn't take place.
This afternoon Sweeney spoke publicly, with his wife standing silently at his side: "I love my wife, I love my children, I love my family, and I will not allow them to be dragged in this just because my opponent has the thirst and desire to have power."
Sweeney clearly wants to give the impression that the document which was the basis of reports in the Albany Times-Union and the New York Daily News -- a page from a police blotter -- was a fabrication, and that his Democratic opponent, Kirsten Gillibrand, is behind it.
But in a statement released earlier in the day by Sweeney's wife it's clear that something happened on the night in question. "The evening in question was a very difficult time for our family Real life has real problems. Like every family, we have personal challenges that we must overcome."
The whole thing amounts to one really fraught non-denial denial. Did the events in question happen on that night? No comment. Did Mrs. Sweeney call 911? No comment. Was there a physical confrontation? No comment.
But the story that ran in the papers? Terrible, terrible totally false double not true stuff. A shameful report concocted by my opponent.
Shameless, I tell you!
Did I mention shameful?
--Josh Marshall
Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH): Don't blame Rummy. It was the friggin' soldiers who screwed up.
This afternoon on Blitzer's Situation Room, Wolf reads John Boehner a list of Republicans criticizing or calling for the resignation of Don Rumsfeld. And Boehner responds ...
BOEHNER: Wolf, I understand that, but let's not blame what's happening in Iraq on Rumsfeld.BLITZER: But he's in charge of the military.
BOEHNER: But the fact is, the generals on the ground are in charge, and he works closely with them and the president. We've seen this run up in violence as we get closer to the election, as we get closer to Ramadan, same thing we've seen over the last couple of years.
It's bad enough Boehner wants to place blame on the soldiers in the field. But Boehner has a very short memory. Remember, the whole Rummy cult that held Washington in its thrall only a few years ago was based on the idea that he didn't just take the stodgy generals' word f